Thursday, March 26, 2009

The Odds & Ends of Tanking a Season

Worst to first is hardly a guarantee just because you get the #1 pick in the draft. In fact the odds of the worst NHL team getting the first pick in the draft is less than 50%. Now, you might want to check with Rick Tocchet on this, cause I'm no odds-maker. Settle down Rick, it's a JOKE! Like you.

According to this site,, the odds of the worst team in the NHL winning the lottery for the #1 pick is ~48%
2nd worst team has ~19%
3rd has about ~14%
4th has ~11%
5th has ~8%
Fine, most people already know this.
What I find more interesting on this site is the reality of the past 13 lotteries. The year after the lock-out is not considered since every team was entered.
Out of these 13 years;
46% of the time the worst team retained the #1 pick, ok, that jives
The 2nd worst team NEVER moved up to first, despite the 19% odds
The 3rd place team moved up to first 4 times, that is 31% of the time. Just over double what the odds are.
The 4th place team picked first, one time or 8%, about right...and
The 5th place team picked first, TWO times or 15%. That is nearly double the odds as well.
That's odd.
And that's a pun.
Seriously, that does seem a bit strange. Like snow in Vegas.
So what's my point?
This season has been a tough one for Avs fans. So tough that some people have resorted to what you might call non-traditional cheering. Fans are rooting for a winning challenged season, a let's get every one in management fired kind of season. So all those Colorado Avalanche "fans" that are cheering every time the team loses, be careful what you root for. Just the combination of a strange roll of the dice and one of those top 5 picks that are a complete bust (and there are many) and your team isn't any better off than before.
In the end, do you really know what you are going to get?
As the end of the season approaches for the Colorado Avalanche I choose to cheer them on. I want them to win.
If you think the Avs will be better off in the end, then go ahead, cheer when they lose.
Cheer for the Avs to be at the end of a list of bad teams at the end of a bad season.
But don't come cryin' to me when the Avs draft high, or even first, and the story doesn't have a happy ending.
Have you seen an interview with Ryan Smyth in the last couple weeks? Have you seem him playing?
He is going to play hard, To. The. End.

Posted by: From the Point

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